A Deep Dive into Global Markets, Investor Sentiment, and the Impact of US Jobs Report on Rate Cut Expectations”
In the wake of a robust US jobs report, analysts are revising their expectations for rate cuts, pushing them from March to June. The market, initially optimistic, saw a shift to bearish sentiments on January 8 morning, mirroring trends in other Asian markets. Rising treasury yields and a stronger dollar contributed to a cautious atmosphere, leading to a 0.2 percent decline in both the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 by 9:55 am.
As the market navigates this rangebound momentum, experts anticipate continued consolidation in the upcoming sessions. The focus now turns to key triggers such as the commencement of India Inc’s Q3 earnings season and the release of retail inflation figures by both the US and India later in the week.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, suggests that while consolidation might occur, robust indicators like India’s 7.3 percent GDP growth and strong Q3 business updates could limit downside risks.
Derivative analyst Deven Mehta identifies potential support levels for the Nifty 50 between 21,600 and 21,620, with resistance expected at 21,800 to 21,850. He notes that a breach of 21,850 could propel the index towards 22,000, while a breakdown may lead to a decline to 21,500.
Globally, the 10-year US treasury yields surpassed the 4 percent mark following an impressive jobs report, with over 200,000 jobs added in December, surpassing economists’ expectations. Khemka notes a shift in rate cut expectations from March to June in light of this strong employment data.
VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, advises long-term investors to capitalize on market dips by investing in high-quality banking stocks that are reasonably priced.
Despite the market’s muted start in 2024, experts remain optimistic about the correction, viewing it as a necessary step towards ensuring the health of domestic markets.
In the financial sector, MobiKwik’s recent filing for an IPO indicates its intent to raise Rs 700 crore through a fresh issue of shares. While the proposed IPO size is more than 50% lower than the previous attempt, the focus on profitability over the last two years is evident. MobiKwik’s revenue metrics, for every Rs 1 spent on marketing, reveal a revenue of Rs 6.64 as of FY23. However, competition from players like Fino Payments Bank, Groww, PhonePe, and Paytm remains intense.
As MobiKwik takes its second shot at going public, the blog explores its journey, the evolving landscape of digital payments, and the dynamics influencing the financial sector. Stay tuned for more updates on market trends, economic shifts, and strategic moves within the financial services industry.
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